Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) crushed it. At least for now, Upstart wins the TOP TIER INFLECTION POINT AWARD for this Q4 2024 earnings season:

1. First, UPST did not just crush Q4, they OBLITERATED it:

Said Upstart Co-Founder/CEO, Dave Girouard:

"In Q4 of 2024, our business grew dramatically across all product categories, delivered Adjusted EBITDA at levels not seen since the first quarter of 2022, and came within a whisker of returning to GAAP profitability… We launched into 2025 with unparalleled energy and optimism for the future of Upstart AI lending and the mission we're on together.

This quarter was just so damn good. Here is where consensus was coming into the print:

Revenues bested consensus by $37.04M. This was 20% ABOVE consensus.

On many levels this report reminds me of the acceleration we saw in POWL, SMCI, ROOT and WGS before they went parabolic. 

Like UPST, all of those companies delivered quadruple bareled inflection points, where the company not only beat on both revenues and EPS, but then also guided up strongly for its next quarter, finished off with a magnificent guide up for the ENTIRE YEAR.

Other super impressive stats, included:

• Upstart's $38.8M in EBITDA beat consensus by 573%.
• EPS of $0.26 smashed consensus of a ($0.04) loss.

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2. The Q1 guide was well above consensus, with room left for further upside acceleration in BOTH Q1 and Q2:

For Q1 2025, it expects revenue of ~$200M (vs. $184.6M Wall Street consensus); adjusted EBITDA of ~$27M (vs. $10.7M Visible Alpha estimate).

So, not only an 8% revenue beat, but also, a 152% BEAT GUIDE UP, relative to consensus.

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3. And, then the icing on the cake - the eye opening guide up FOR 2025.

First, here is where consensus was:

Check out the guides:

For Q1 2025: Revenue of ~$200M (vs. $184.6M Wall Street consensus); Adj EBITDA of ~$27M (vs. $10.7M Visible Alpha estimate).

For FY 2025: Revenues of $1B (20% ABOVE CONSENSUS); EBITDA MARGINS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS TO BOOT...

Considering this management team has been through the ringer - in 14 months, UPST cratered from $400+ down to $12.50 after a couple of BAD MISSES - they have done a much better job of framing and beating guidance handily this quarter and in Q3, as well. Super impressive.

The improvement seems poised to continue , with Upstart closing in on a few deals that will help offload half of the $800Mish in loans the company has on its balance sheet. UPST did two converts last year. I do worry they may do another one if the stock goes to $100 quickly, but that's a high class, short-term problem with an $84 cost.

With Upstart's quad-bareled inflection point manifesting so powerfully, we established a Top 5 position in UPST tonight.

We left room to add on dips to $81-$83. We would be shocked if $80 gave way on the first flush, but anything is certainly possible with Tariff Man hard at work every week.

TRADING THESIS

We think UPST will grow its revenues ~55% this year and could also see a 35% rise in 2026. In such scenarios,  EPS will go from $2 this year to $4.00 next year.

We think the stock can gun to $100, perhaps quickly, especially with 20M shares short.

There are ~112M shares fully-diluted. So a $14B Market Cap, or 10x likely 2026 sales of $1.4B, would translate into an $125 stock the second half of this year.

With a tremendously enhanced balance sheet and private credit and other credit market players onboard, credit is available for Upstart to scale strongly this year. We expect its underlying profitability to inflect tremendously like it did in Q4, when expenses went up only 2%, while revenues grew 30%+ sequentially.

POWERFUL STUFF.

Longer-term, in a very good tape, UPST could eventually even garner a cra cra Price-to-Sales Multiple of 15x again, should its 2025 best consensus as strongly as we think it will. In a very good tape, UPST could even head toward $200, perhaps, a lot more quickly than anyone currently envisions.

Lastly, I love UPST's weekly. Lot of fuel here:

Gonna leave it there from me.

Great summary from our friends at Seeking Alpha:

• CEO Dave Girouard highlighted a strong quarter with origination volume increasing 33% sequentially and revenue growing 35%, translating to 68% and 56% year-over-year growth in these metrics, respectively. All product categories contributed, with auto and HELOC originations both up 60% sequentially, and small-dollar relief loans showing 115% growth. He emphasized the launch of Model 19, which introduced the Payment Transition Model (PTM), leading to more accurate underwriting.

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• Girouard noted significant progress in the HELOC business, with originations exceeding 1,000 loans and no defaults, operating in 36 states covering 60% of the U.S. population. The HELOC expansion included automation improvements and cross-selling strategies.

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• CFO Sanjay Datta reported net revenue of $219 million, a 56% year-on-year and 35% sequential increase, driven by 246,000 loan transactions. Fixed costs were managed tightly, with GAAP operating expenses rising only 3% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA was $39 million, and GAAP net loss was $2.8 million.

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• Datta noted an upsized $1.3 billion commitment from capital partners and a $150 million personal loan warehouse facility, which underscored growing confidence in Upstart’s platform.

Outlook

• Management expects Q1 2025 revenues of approximately $200 million, including $185 million from fees and $15 million in net interest income. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $27 million.

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• For the full year 2025, the company targets $1 billion in total revenues, $920 million from fees, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 18%. GAAP net income is projected to reach at least breakeven by year-end.

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• Girouard outlined four key priorities for 2025: scaling AI model innovation, preparing funding supply for rapid growth, achieving GAAP profitability in the second half, and advancing competitive rates and processes across products.

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Disclosure:   We are long UPST stock and calls. We may change our positioning at a moment’s notice, without notifying you of any such moves.

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In no shape or manner should the views expressed in this piece be considered investment advice. We reserve the right to change our positioning in our UPST stock and options positions at a moment’s notice without updating you on any such change in opinion and positioning. That may be tomorrow, even before our price target is hit. Facts change, our opinions can change quickly too.

Investors need to consider their investment risk tolerance before investing in the stock market and also before investing in any of the stocks mentioned in this report.

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